Inflation Expectations: methodology

What this metric measures

What professional forecasters expect inflation to be over the next year, from the RBA's survey of market economists. Choose a survey to compare with what consumers, businesses, union officials and the bond market expect.

Why it matters: Expectations feed back into actual inflation: workers ask for pay rises, and businesses set prices, based on what they expect. When expectations stay close to the RBA's 2-3% target, inflation is easier to bring back down; when they drift up, it is harder.

Source & provenance

Publisher

RBA Table G3 — market economists' inflation expectations, 1 year ahead (GMAREXPY), quarterly. The breakdown adds the 2-year-ahead economists' survey, consumers (Melbourne Institute, from 2022), businesses (NAB), the 10-year bond-market break-even, and union officials' surveys, which the RBA no longer publishes (last value September 2023).

Update frequency

quarterly

Licence

CC BY 4.0

How the score is computed

The score is a 0–100 normalisation of the latest observation, compared to a baseline window. The traffic-light rating (RAG) reflects both the absolute level and the recent trend.

Direction

Lower is better

Trend window

24 months

Baseline

Last 10 years

{
  "red_min_pct_of_baseline": 110,
  "amber_max_pct_of_baseline": 110,
  "green_max_pct_of_baseline": 95
}